DaDaDa2016: Andreas Groll – Modeling Football Results Using Match-specific Covariates

Abstract: Modeling Football Results Using Match-specific Covariates

A model for results of football matches is proposed that is able to take into account match-specifi c covariates as, for example, the total distance a team runs in the specifi c match. The model extends the Bradley-Terry model in many diff erent ways. In addition to the inclusion of covariates, it considers ordered response values and (possibly team-speci fic) home e ffects. Penalty terms are used to reduce the complexity of the model and to find clusters of teams with equal covariate effects.


From 2001-2007 I studied business mathematics at the LMU Munich. Next, from April 2008 until November 2011 I was working as a Ph.D. student under supervision of Prof. Tutz at the Department of Statistics of the LMU. From March 2012 until February 2016 I was working at Prof. Biagini’s chair at the Deparment of Mathematics of the LMU as postdoc and since 1st of March 2016 I’m working as postdoc at the chair of Prof. Kneib.

In the meantime, from October to December 2014 I was working as visiting professor for „Applied Statistics“ (W2) at the TU Clausthal  and from April to September 2016 I was working as visiting professor „Seminar for Applied Stochastic“ (W3) at the LMU. From January to March 2015 I visited the University of Stanford for a research period with the project partners Prof. Hastie and Prof. Tibshirani.



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